Scopri IRVAPP

This seminar proposes a new manipulation test for regression discontinuity designs based on Benford's Law. Since manipulation often creates asymmetry in the running variable's density near the cutoff, the authors use Benford's Law—well known in fraud detection—to detect it. Unlike McCrary-type tests, this approach removes researcher-chosen parameters, using predetermined thresholds from Nigrini (2012) instead. A new bandwidth-selection method and probability-based thresholds extend Benford's Law beyond digit analysis, with empirical examples included.

This study examines how reproductive rights shape fertility intentions in Poland, a country combining Europe's lowest fertility rates with a 2020 tightening of abortion law. While economic insecurity, housing, childcare, and gender inequality dominate fertility research, the role of reproductive access remains understudied. Using an original factorial survey experiment (n=1,337, ages 20–35, 2024), this study employs a single-profile conjoint design to compare abortion access for severe fetal abnormalities against five other contextual determinants—employment stability, housing access, childcare, men's domestic involvement, and climate change—estimating their relative influence on first- and second-birth intentions across gender and parenthood status.